TLDR Vitalik Buterin warned prediction markets are drifting toward addictive, low-value gambling he calls “corposlop” He said platforms rely too much on sports betting and short-term crypto price wagers Buterin was an early investor in Polymarket, one of the leading prediction market platforms As recently as December 2025, he had defended prediction markets as healthier than traditional finance He now says prediction markets should pursue use cases like personalized insurance instead
Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum and an early backer of prediction market platform Polymarket, has raised concerns about where prediction markets are heading. He posted his warning on X on February 18, 2026.
Buterin said he is worried that platforms are leaning too heavily on sports betting, short-term crypto price wagers, and other high-engagement, low-value products. He described this trend as “over-converging to an unhealthy product market fit.”
He coined the term “corposlop” to describe platforms that are optimized for addictive, low-value gambling rather than meaningful financial or social utility. It is the direction he fears the industry is moving toward.
Buterin said he understands why companies make this choice. He wrote that teams feel motivated to chase this revenue during bear markets when money is tight, but called it a path that ultimately leads to corposlop.
He said there is “nothing fundamentally morally wrong with taking money from people with dumb opinions,” but added that making it a core strategy is “cursed.” He argued it pushes platforms to actively encourage bad thinking to drive more traffic.
Recently I have been starting to worry about the state of prediction markets, in their current form. They have achieved a certain level of success: market volume is high enough to make meaningful bets and have a full-time job as a trader, and they often prove useful