TLDR Tradeweb Markets (TW) stock rose 2.5% after announcing a partnership with Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market Tradeweb made a minority investment in Kalshi as part of the deal The partnership will embed Kalshi’s real-time event probability data into Tradeweb’s trading platform The companies plan to build the first institutional-focused marketplace for event contracts Initial integration covers macroeconomic releases, Fed policy, elections, and other key policy outcomes
Tradeweb Markets stock climbed 2.5% on Thursday after the company announced a strategic partnership with Kalshi, the largest regulated prediction market in the US.
Degen-ing isn’t just for kids.. Tradeweb has signed a deal to bring Kalshi’s prediction markets to institutional investors. pic.twitter.com/Vx6VJoUqlG
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) February 19, 2026
The deal pairs Tradeweb’s electronic trading infrastructure with Kalshi’s real-time event probability data. Tradeweb also made a minority financial investment in Kalshi as part of the agreement.
Tradeweb operates electronic marketplaces for rates, credit, equities, and money markets. The platform handles more than $2.6 trillion in notional value traded on average each day and serves over 3,000 institutional clients across more than 85 countries.
Kalshi is a federally regulated prediction market where users trade contracts tied to real-world outcomes. These include economic data releases, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and political elections.
The first phase of the partnership will embed Kalshi’s real-time event probabilities directly into Tradeweb’s rates and credit marketplaces. This will be available through user interfaces, APIs, and data-download tools.
Tradeweb CEO Billy Hult said prediction markets have the potential to help institutions assess macro risk and allocate capital more effectively. He said the company believes the institutional trading stack will evolve to pair high-quality event data with modern market structure.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said he saw demand for prediction markets from institutional investors