TLDR Users on Kalshi and Polymarket placed bets on Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei losing power before he was killed in U.S. and Israeli strikes on Feb. 28, 2026. Crypto analytics firm Bubblemaps identified six suspected insiders who made $1.2 million on Polymarket betting on the Iran strike. Sen. Chris Murphy announced plans to introduce legislation to ban prediction markets, calling the bets illegal. Kalshi refunded $2.2 million in fees and net losses to users after confusion over how the market would be settled. The CFTC already bans contracts tied to terrorism, war, or assassination, but regulated prediction markets found a workaround by framing bets around leadership changes.
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are under fire after users placed bets on Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei losing power, just before U.S. and Israeli strikes killed him on Feb. 28, 2026.
BREAKING: The odds Ali Khamenei is out as Supreme Leader have surged to 68%
Reminder: Kalshi does not offer markets that settle on death.
If Ali Khamenei dies, the market will resolve based on the last traded price prior to confirmed reporting of death. pic.twitter.com/geL2CgdRwI
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) February 28, 2026
The bets were framed around whether Khamenei would be “out as Supreme Leader” by certain dates. Kalshi is a U.S.-regulated platform. Polymarket operates offshore and is not subject to the same rules.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour promoted the Khamenei market on his personal X account. He later compared it to oil futures, saying it was different from betting directly on someone’s death.
Polymarket listed the market at the top of its website. It also offered users the option to bet on the date of a strike, with Feb. 28 listed as a choice — the exact date the operation took place.
Amanda