TLDR Six fresh Polymarket wallets made $1.2 million betting on US strikes against Iran hours before they happened The largest single bet turned $61,000 into $493,000 — an 821% return Blockchain data shows identical trade timestamps and minimal trading histories across the winning wallets The CFTC issued an insider trading warning just three days before the strikes Lawmakers are pushing legislation to ban prediction market bets tied to military action
Six newly created accounts on prediction market platform Polymarket made $1.2 million betting that the US would strike Iran by February 28, 2026. The accounts were funded within 24 hours of the actual strikes, which took place on that same date.
JUST IN: Polymarket sees record “World” trading volume as U.S.–Iran bets surpass $529M.
• $45M traded on Khamenei market
• 6 wallets netted ~$1.2M before Feb 28 strike
• Ceasefire odds jump to 61% by Mar 31$BTC $ETH $OIL $SPX pic.twitter.com/ECVFgtJjis
— MarketPulseHQ (@MPulseHQ) March 1, 2026
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps flagged the wallets after reviewing on-chain data from Polymarket’s order book. The firm’s CEO said the evidence was “convincing enough to share.”
The largest single position in the cluster turned roughly $61,000 into $493,000. That’s an 821% return in just a few days.
Two of the winning wallets, named “Lettucehead718” and “suffix-295,” placed trades at identical timestamps on February 27. Both had traded fewer than 10 markets in their entire history.
Analysts say the wallets also placed small bets on nearby dates — a tactic described as “decoy” trades designed to make the activity look like normal speculation.
Of the top 20 holders of winning shares on the February 28 market, all held positions between $42,000 and $62,000. That tight clustering suggests a single operator spread funds across multiple accounts.
A separate account called