TLDR Former Trump Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney says prediction market contracts are “gambling” and should be regulated by states, not the CFTC Mulvaney launched a coalition called “Gambling Is Not Investing” to push for state-level oversight Kalshi faced backlash after settling the Ayatollah Khamenei market using a death carveout rule, paying out based on the last traded price before his death The Khamenei market on Kalshi had over $54 million in trading volume Polymarket settled the same market as “yes” but that settlement is currently under review
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket are at the center of a growing debate over who should regulate them and how they handle major real-world events. A weekend of controversy involving bets on Iran’s Supreme Leader has added fuel to that fire.
Former Trump White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney has started a new group called Gambling Is Not Investing. The group argues that state gambling regulators, not the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, should oversee prediction markets.
“The simple answer is that it’s gambling. It just is,” Mulvaney told CNBC. He used the example of betting on the Lakers winning a basketball game to make his point.
The CFTC has argued it should be the primary regulator of prediction markets. Mulvaney disagrees, saying the CFTC is built to regulate markets, not protect consumers.
Mulvaney also raised national security concerns. He suggested that if people are trading on classified information, foreign adversaries like Russia or China could extract intelligence from prediction market activity.
He called for an investigation into contracts that paid off for people who predicted a U.S. strike on Iran. Members of Congress have raised similar concerns.
When asked who funds his coalition, Mulvaney said the group is not required by law to disclose that information and declined