TLDR Polymarket bettors now see only a 24% chance of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire by March 31 Over $12 million has been traded on Polymarket ceasefire contracts The Dow fell 0.6%, S&P 500 and Nasdaq each dropped around 0.3% on Thursday Oil prices surged, with WTI futures near $78 and Brent above $84 a barrel Concerns are growing that rising oil prices could force the Fed to reassess interest rates
As the U.S.-Israel coalition and Iran enter a sixth day of conflict, financial markets are feeling the pressure. Stocks dropped, oil prices climbed again, and prediction market bettors are not expecting a quick end to the fighting.
On Thursday morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite each lost around 0.3%.
The drops came after markets failed to hold onto gains from a previous rebound session. Middle East conflict remains the main driver of market movement.
Trump said on Wednesday the U.S. was “doing very well on the war front.” The White House also said American forces had struck more than 2,000 targets and were working toward full control of Iranian airspace.
Iran is the fourth-largest oil producer in OPEC. Damage to its production infrastructure is pushing oil prices higher.
West Texas Intermediate futures traded near $78 a barrel. Brent crude climbed above $84.
Trump announced the U.S. would offer risk insurance and naval escorts for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. That eased some supply fears briefly, but damage to tankers and regional infrastructure kept pressure on prices.
Oil Prices Raise Fed Rate Concerns
Rising oil prices are adding a new layer of concern for investors. There is growing worry that sustained high energy costs could push the Federal Reserve to reconsider its interest rate stance.
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