TLDR Senator Chris Murphy plans to introduce a bill banning prediction market trading on government actions like military strikes. Blockchain data showed six wallets made a combined $989,191 profit betting on the US Iran strike hours before it happened. The largest single wallet turned $60,816 into $494,375 profit by buying shares at 10.8 cents each. A House companion bill is being prepared by Rep. Mike Levin; similar insider trading cases have occurred on Polymarket before. Kalshi and Polymarket recorded a combined $18.3 billion in trading volume in February 2026.
Senator Chris Murphy said Wednesday he will introduce legislation this month to ban trading on prediction markets tied to government actions, including military strikes.
The move follows blockchain data showing six wallets made nearly $1 million betting on a US strike on Iran — hours before it happened.
The Polymarket contract was titled “US strikes Iran by Feb. 28, 2026?” The six wallets bought “yes” shares on Friday, the day before the US and Israeli airstrikes began on Saturday.
Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps identified the cluster of wallets. All six were newly funded and acted in a narrow window before the attack became public knowledge.
The largest wallet converted a $60,816 bet into $494,375 in profit. It purchased 560,680 “yes” shares at 10.8 cents each.
A second wallet under the name “Planktonbets” earned $173,907 across seven prediction markets. A third wallet, “Dicedicedice,” made $119,964 on a single bet placed at 20 cents — a 400% return.
Murphy said the pattern pointed to people with advance access to White House information. He called it a corruption risk.
“It looks like those six big accounts that were set up on Friday made a profit of a million dollars off of us going to war on Saturday,” Murphy said in a