TLDR Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel, hitting highs not seen since 2022 The Dow dropped over 800 points; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also fell sharply Kalshi recession odds jumped from under 25% to above 34% in days The Strait of Hormuz closure and U.S.-Iran conflict are driving the oil shock G7 ministers met Monday to discuss releasing reserves from the IEA
Oil prices exploded past $100 a barrel on Monday, sending U.S. stocks sharply lower and pushing recession fears to their highest point in months.
West Texas Intermediate crude traded around $99–$103 a barrel by Monday morning. It had spiked as high as $119 on Sunday — a nearly 25% jump in a single day.
The last time oil crossed $100 was after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
The cause this time is the U.S.-Iran conflict. The Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane for global oil, has been effectively closed. Kuwait confirmed production cuts and Iraqi output reportedly dropped by around 70%.
How Stocks Reacted
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 800 points, or about 1.7%. The S&P 500 dropped 1.5% and the Nasdaq fell 1.3%.
This follows an already rough week. The Dow lost around 3% last week — its worst weekly drop since tariff fears hit markets in April 2025.
Higher oil prices push up gas and fuel costs for consumers and businesses. That tends to slow spending, which puts pressure on corporate earnings and the broader economy.
Investors are now watching Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index and Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures data closely. Neither will fully reflect the oil surge yet.
On the earnings calendar this week, Oracle and Adobe are the key names to watch.
Recession Odds Are Climbing
Prediction market platform Kalshi showed recession odds for 2026