TLDR Kalshi prediction market traders give Trump a 70% chance of impeachment before January 1, 2028, with over $1.7 million in trading volume on the contract. Short-term odds remain low, with only a 4% chance of impeachment before June 2026 and 13% before January 2027. Traders are also betting on which world leaders might leave power before the end of 2026, with Cuba’s Díaz-Canel topping the list at 31%. Prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket continue to grow as tools for tracking political expectations in real time. Despite the high long-term probability, the numbers reflect trader sentiment and can shift quickly based on news developments.
Traders on the prediction platform Kalshi are placing growing bets on whether U.S. President Donald Trump will face impeachment during his current term. The market tracking the question currently shows a 70% probability that impeachment could happen before January 1, 2028.
The contract has drawn more than $1.7 million in trading volume. That level of activity reflects real interest from participants willing to put money behind their expectations.
However, the numbers tell a more layered story when broken down by time frame. Short-term contracts show far lower odds of impeachment happening anytime soon.
The market currently gives only about a 4% chance that Trump will be impeached before June 1, 2026. Looking slightly further ahead, the probability rises to around 13% before January 1, 2027.
This suggests traders believe that if impeachment does take place, it would more likely come in the later stages of the presidential term. The near-term outlook remains relatively calm by comparison.
Prediction markets operate differently from traditional polls. Instead of asking people their opinions, these platforms let participants buy and sell contracts tied to future events. Prices shift constantly based on news and sentiment.
A contract priced