TLDR Kalshi recession odds for 2026 jumped above 34%, the highest level since November, up from under 25% late last week U.S. oil prices rallied above $100 per barrel for the first time since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war aftermath Middle Eastern output cuts and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the U.S.-Iran war drove the oil spike West Texas Intermediate crude posted its biggest weekly gain on record as the conflict escalated Kalshi bettors see a 60% chance U.S. gas prices exceed $4 this month, with the national average at $3.48
Prediction market bettors are growing more worried about a U.S. recession in 2026 as oil prices surge past a key level.
On Kalshi, the probability of a U.S. recession this year climbed above 34% on Monday. That marked the highest reading on the platform since November.
Just days earlier, the same market had priced the chance of a recession at under 25%. The sharp move higher came as oil prices crossed a critical threshold.
U.S. oil prices rallied above $100 per barrel on Monday. Crude had not traded at that level since the aftermath of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Oil Supply Disruptions Fuel the Rally
The price spike was driven by supply concerns in the Middle East. Producers in the region cut output in recent days as the Strait of Hormuz, a key passageway for global oil shipments, was closed due to the U.S.-Iran war.
West Texas Intermediate crude posted its biggest weekly gain on record last week. The conflict between the U.S. and Iran escalated throughout the week, pushing prices higher.
WTI was trading around $96.69 per barrel on Monday morning, down about 2% from earlier highs. The pullback came after the initial shock of crossing $100.
Economists and analysts