TLDR Rep. Budzinski and Rep. Smith introduced the PREDICT Act on March 25 to ban federal officials from trading on political prediction markets The ban covers Congress members, the President, Vice President, senior appointees, judicial officers, and their families Proxy trading through fiduciaries is also prohibited under the bill Violators face a 10% civil penalty on trade value plus full profit surrender, all paid to the U.S. Treasury Ethics offices must publish all fines and penalty details on a public website
A new bipartisan bill introduced this week would ban a wide range of federal officials from trading on prediction markets tied to political outcomes. The PREDICT Act is the latest in a growing list of proposals aimed at closing gaps in ethics rules around these platforms.
Rep. Nikki Budzinski and Rep. Adrian Smith unveiled the Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading Act on March 25. The bill joins several similar efforts that have moved through Congress in recent weeks.
The proposal targets prediction market contracts where payouts depend on political events. That includes elections, policy decisions, government actions, and anything tied to an official’s duties.
Prediction markets have grown rapidly in recent years, allowing users to place bets on real-world outcomes. Lawmakers have raised concerns that officials with access to inside information could use these platforms to profit.
Budzinski said the rise of these platforms has made it easier for insiders to exploit sensitive events. She called the bill a way to close a loophole and ensure officials cannot profit from privileged information.
Smith described public service as a privilege and not a pathway to profit. She said the bipartisan bill would give Americans confidence that elected officials are guided by merit.
Who the PREDICT Act Covers
The bill reaches well beyond Congress. It