TLDR The NFL sent formal letters to Kalshi and Polymarket asking them to change certain betting offerings The league flagged four categories of risky bets including single-player events, insider-known outcomes, referee decisions, and injury wagers Kalshi reported nearly $900 million in football trading volume during the recent Super Bowl The celebrity attendance market alone generated nearly $37 million in trading volume The NFL remains cautious about prediction markets while other leagues like the NHL actively partner with them
The NFL has taken direct aim at prediction market platforms over concerns about manipulation and insider trading.
On Sunday, the league sent formal letters to Kalshi and Polymarket, two of the most well-known prediction market operators in the space.
The letters asked both companies to stop listing certain types of event contracts that the league believes are too easy to manipulate.
Football executives are particularly worried about bets that rely on closely guarded insider information.
The league wants to draw clear lines around what these platforms can and cannot offer when it comes to NFL-related markets.
Four Categories of Risky Bets
The NFL outlined four specific types of wagers it considers problematic.
The first category covers events that can be controlled by a single person on the field. A specifically timed missed field goal is one example the league pointed to.
The second involves outcomes that team insiders might know about before the public. Draft picks and coaching changes fall into this group.
Third, the league opposes any markets tied to specific referee decisions. And fourth, it rejects any wagers related to player injuries or fan safety.
These categories go well beyond what traditional sportsbooks typically offer.
Prediction markets have become known for listing unusual bets that fall outside normal sports gambling rules. Users can place money on things