TLDR Brazil’s regulated betting market now has 83 licensed operators, 29.4 million active users, and R$ 37 billion in public revenue A new study warns tax rates on betting operators could rise from 32% to 42% by 2033 due to ongoing tax reform Industry leaders say changing tax rules mid-game could make operations unviable for companies that entered Brazil under a defined framework Higher taxes could push consumers toward illegal betting sites, costing the government potential revenue A proposed “sin tax” set for 2027 could add further costs, though critics say it misapplies lottery logic to a different business model
Brazil’s regulated betting market is heading into a potential tax crisis that could reshape the industry within the next decade.
The sector, now in its second year of legal operations, has posted strong numbers. There are currently 83 licensed operators, 29.4 million active users, and R$ 37 billion in public revenue.
But a new study from LCA Consultoria, commissioned by the Brazilian Institute of Responsible Gaming (IBJR), warns that the good times may not last if tax rates keep climbing.
The report projects that the tax burden on betting operators could jump from 32% to 42% by 2033. The increase is tied to Brazil’s broader tax reform, which is replacing older taxes like PIS/Cofins and ISS with newer ones.
The new taxes include IBS (Tax on Goods and Services) and CBS (Contribution on Goods and Services). These changes could add 14 percentage points above the Ministry of Finance’s proposed 28% baseline rate.
The social contribution rate on the sector’s revenues may also rise from 13% to 15%, according to the study.
Industry Leaders Warn of Breaking Point
Operators already paid steep license fees of R$ 30 million to enter the Brazilian market. Now they face the prospect