TLDR Polymarket bettors put the chance of Iran’s regime collapsing by March 31 at just over 20%, down from 40% after Khamenei was killed A trader turned a $23,000 bet into a $120,000 profit by betting on Khamenei’s removal hours before the U.S.-Israel strike Polymarket’s own social media has flagged over two dozen suspicious trades on its platform An Israeli military reservist was arrested for allegedly using classified information to trade on Polymarket Kalshi bans insider trading in its rulebook; Polymarket does not
Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi are under growing scrutiny after a series of well-timed trades surrounding the U.S. and Israeli strike on Iran, which killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Hours before the attack, one trader placed a $23,000 bet that Khamenei would be removed from power by March 31. When President Trump confirmed Khamenei’s death, that bet paid out $120,000.
The trade quickly drew attention online and in the press. It is the latest in a string of suspicious bets that have raised questions about whether insiders are using classified information to profit on the platforms.
Polymarket’s own social media account has flagged more than two dozen such trades over time. One post called out a $68,000 bet on Kevin Hassett becoming Federal Reserve chair, placed by a new anonymous account. The post suggested the trader may have had inside knowledge. In the end, Hassett did not get the job. About half of the flagged bets paid off, according to a Barron’s review.
A Pattern of Suspicious Trades
The pattern goes back further. In early January, a trader placed a $30,000 bet on Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro being removed from power, hours before U.S. forces captured him. The bet paid out $400,000.
That trade led U.S. Representative Ritchie Torres to introduce a bill