TLDR Senator Chris Murphy and Rep. Greg Casar introduced the BETS OFF Act to ban prediction market bets on government decisions, military actions, and terrorism Around 150 Polymarket accounts placed unusual bets before US strikes on Iran, with one person making nearly $500,000 The bill would impose criminal penalties on operators and block payment processing for banned platforms Lawmakers highlighted Trump family financial ties to Polymarket and Kalshi, including a Trump-branded prediction market Polling shows 59% of voters oppose wagering on government actions, with 82% concerned about terrorism-related markets
US lawmakers have introduced a new bill that would make it illegal to place bets on government decisions, military strikes, and other sensitive events. The legislation targets popular prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket.
The bill is called the Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions Act, or BETS OFF Act. It was introduced by Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut and Representative Greg Casar of Texas.
Several other lawmakers are co-sponsoring the bill. They include Senator John Hickenlooper of Colorado and Representatives Yassamin Ansari, Gabe Amo, and Rashida Tlaib.
Murphy called prediction markets “fundamentally corrupt markets rife with insider trading” during a press conference on Tuesday. The bill would also amend existing gambling laws to block payment processing for banned platforms.
Criminal penalties would apply to US individuals who promote or operate these markets. Prediction market companies have pushed back, arguing their platforms are forecasting tools regulated under federal derivatives oversight.
Suspicious Activity Before Iran Strikes
The lawmakers pointed to what they described as unusual betting patterns on Polymarket before US military strikes on Iran. Casar said around 150 accounts placed bets the day before the strikes that military action would begin the next day.
Of those accounts, 109 made more than $10,000. Sixteen accounts