TLDR Morgan Stanley forecasts Macau casino GGR to rise 6% in 2026, compared to just 1% growth for Singapore and Las Vegas Macau’s 2025 GGR already hit MOP247.40 billion (US$30.63 billion), up 9.1% year over year Despite revenue growth, Macau EBITDA is expected to rise only 2% due to rising cost pressures Morgan Stanley downgraded its Macau gaming outlook from “attractive” to “in-line” Singapore gaming volumes are expected to rise but EBITDA is projected to decline 1% in 2026
Macau’s casinos are on track to outgrow their competitors in Singapore and Las Vegas this year in terms of gross gaming revenue. But profits may not keep up with that top-line growth.
Morgan Stanley released a note on Wednesday forecasting Macau industry GGR to rise by around 6% year on year in 2026. That compares with roughly 1% growth expected for both Singapore and Las Vegas.
The numbers follow a strong 2025 for Macau. Official figures show GGR last year rose 9.1% year over year to MOP247.40 billion, which is about US$30.63 billion.
However, revenue growth does not always mean profit growth. Morgan Stanley expects Macau’s EBITDA to rise by just 2% this year. That is below what the market had been anticipating.
The bank said the weak profit outlook reflects a downgrade from 2025 performance. Cost pressures continue to weigh on earnings across the market.
Structural Cost Pressures Weigh on Macau Profits
Morgan Stanley’s analysts said cost pressure in Macau is now structural. The market’s focus on premium mass players is driving up spending on incentives and promotions for mid-tier customers.
The bank pointed to three main reasons for the modest EBITDA forecast. First, GGR growth is expected to slow in the second half of 2026 due to base effects and continued weakness in base mass business.