TLDR Prediction markets like Polymarket are booming in the US but are blocked or banned across most of Europe as illegal gambling France, Germany, the Netherlands, and several other countries have geoblocked Polymarket or issued fines against the platform Despite bans, user traffic from Europe continues through mirror sites and redirect links Some European lawyers suggest prediction markets could find a path forward if classified as financial products instead of gambling Europe lacks a single federal regulator like the US CFTC, creating a patchwork of conflicting national rules
Prediction markets exploded in popularity in the United States in 2024. Platforms like Polymarket let users trade contracts on real-world events, from elections to geopolitical crises.
During the 2024 US presidential election, traders on Polymarket wagered billions on the outcome. The platform correctly forecast the result before many traditional pollsters did.
But in Europe, the reaction has been very different. Regulators across the continent have moved to block prediction markets, treating them as either illegal gambling or unlicensed financial instruments.
France’s gambling regulator, the Autorité Nationale des Jeux, investigated Polymarket in 2024. It concluded the platform could constitute unauthorized gambling. Polymarket then geoblocked French users.
The French regulator warned that prediction market platforms “are not authorised in France and are considered illegal gambling services.” It also said the platforms showed addictive characteristics similar to online gambling but without protective safeguards.
A Growing List of European Bans
Germany, Belgium, Portugal, Switzerland, Romania, the Netherlands, and Poland have all blocked access to Polymarket. Each country argued the platform offers gambling services without a license.
The Netherlands has been especially firm. Under Dutch law, licensed betting is limited to sports and horse racing. Markets on elections or other events fall outside what is allowed.
The Dutch regulator issued a cease-and-desist order against