TLDR A survey of over 15,000 Americans found 81% believe buying contracts on sporting events through prediction markets is gambling Only 29% think the CFTC can effectively regulate sports event contracts, and 49% expressed little or no trust in prediction markets’ ability to stop insider trading 78% of respondents believe prediction market operators should pay the same state taxes and fees as licensed sportsbooks Several states have filed lawsuits against prediction market operators, with Nevada winning court cases against Kalshi and Coinbase Despite opposition, Kalshi reportedly executed over $800 million in trades during the first NCAA Tournament weekend, and DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics have all entered the prediction market space
A new survey shows that the vast majority of Americans view prediction market sports contracts as gambling, not investing. The poll, conducted by Morning Consult, gathered more than 15,000 responses between March 17 and 22.
The survey was commissioned by Gambling is Not Investing, an organization working to prevent federally regulated exchanges from offering sports contracts. The results show 81% of respondents said buying contracts on sporting event outcomes counts as gambling.
Mick Mulvaney, Executive Director of Gambling is Not Investing and a former acting White House chief of staff, said the results confirm growing concern. He accused prediction markets of disguising sports betting products as financial investments.
Only 29% of those polled believe the Commodity Futures Trading Commission can properly regulate sports event contracts. The CFTC is the federal agency that oversees prediction markets.
CFTC chair Mike Selig, nominated by President Trump and confirmed by the Senate in December, has become a strong supporter of prediction markets offering sports-related contracts. His stance has drawn criticism from state regulators and gambling industry groups.
Public Trust in Prediction Markets Remains Low
The survey found that 73% of respondents