TLDR House Oversight Chair James Comer confirmed an active investigation into suspicious prediction market trades tied to Iran and other geopolitical events Comer said subpoenas will follow if parties do not cooperate with information requests Seven Democratic lawmakers sent a letter citing trades where one trader allegedly made nearly $1 million with a 93% success rate on Iran-related bets A U.S. Army special forces soldier was recently charged with using classified information to place prediction market trades The Senate has already approved a ban on members and staff participating in prediction markets
The House Oversight Committee has launched an investigation into suspicious trading activity on prediction markets connected to U.S. military and geopolitical events. Chairman James Comer confirmed the probe during a Fox Business appearance on Wednesday.
Comer said the committee is already requesting information from relevant parties. He described the activity as concerning and said subpoenas could follow if cooperation is not forthcoming.
“We’ve all seen those big trades go through hours before something big happens in Iran,” Comer said. “We saw the same thing happen in Venezuela.”
The investigation follows a May 11 letter from seven Democratic lawmakers who formally requested that the committee issue subpoenas and open a probe. The group was led by Rep. Chris Pappas of New Hampshire.
Lawmakers Point to a Pattern of Suspicious Trades
The Democratic lawmakers cited several specific trading patterns in their letter. They claimed a single trader made nearly $1 million with a 93 percent success rate on Iran-related wagers.
They also said 38 accounts netted more than $2 million on February 28 strikes. Another example involved 50 newly created accounts that placed coordinated bets on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire on April 7.
Comer acknowledged that government officials may be profiting from nonpublic information through event contracts. He