TLDR A new report estimates 17 million Americans will use prediction markets in 2026, with 43% less likely than average to identify as gamblers There is roughly a 40-50% overlap between sports bettors and prediction market users, far less than many assumed Prediction market users engage with cryptocurrency three times more than the national average and lean heavily toward DeFi The user base is 90% male, the most gender-skewed audience the research firm has ever studied Top user concentrations are in tech hubs like Nashville, Austin, and Fort Collins rather than traditional financial centers New Data Challenges Assumptions About Prediction Market Users
A new behavioral analysis from the ELI Report is reshaping what we know about who actually uses prediction markets in the United States. The report, built from 100 million online signals across 220 million accounts, finds that these traders look a lot more like DeFi enthusiasts than sports gamblers.
Ian Baer, who created the ELI Report, told Gambling Insider he expected to find a crowd of “crypto bros and sports gamblers.” The data told a different story.
According to the report, roughly 17 million Americans are expected to use prediction markets this year. That is a large and growing user base drawing attention from major companies.
About 40-50% of prediction market users also bet on sports. That overlap is smaller than many industry observers assumed.
Forty-three percent of prediction market users are less likely than the average American to call themselves gamblers. Many say they dislike the element of chance found in traditional gambling.
The report found that prediction market users engage with cryptocurrency at three times the national average. They are also 2.8 times more likely to choose high-risk investments and 13 times more likely to be interested in politics.
Baer said these users