TLDR Citi forecasts a 10% year-on-year drop in Macau GGR in June and 5% in July due to the FIFA World Cup 2026 The World Cup runs June 11 to July 19, featuring 48 teams and 104 matches — larger than previous editions Past tournaments like UEFA Euro 2024 saw Macau daily GGR fall around 17% below the yearly average Macau gaming stocks are trading at 7.3x EV/EBITDA, well below the long-term average of 11.4x Citi projects GGR will rise 5.7% year-on-year in H2 2026, driven by concerts and events post-tournament The World Cup Is Expected to Pull Gamblers Away From Macau Tables
Citigroup says the FIFA World Cup 2026 will likely cause a short-term drop in Macau’s gross gaming revenue. The bank says the tournament tends to redirect some of players’ betting budgets away from casinos and toward sports wagering.
The World Cup runs from June 11 to July 19. This year’s edition is larger than ever, with 48 teams and 104 matches.
Citi analyst George Choi forecast a 10% year-on-year decline in Macau GGR in June and a 5% drop in July. He expects a quick recovery once the tournament ends.
Citi also noted that because this edition is bigger than previous ones, the impact on Macau gaming could be greater than what was seen in prior tournaments.
What Past Tournaments Showed
Citi pointed to UEFA Euro 2024 as a recent example. During that tournament, Macau’s daily GGR was expected to fall to around MOP514 million, or about $63.7 million per day. That was roughly 17% below the 2024 daily average of MOP620 million.
The bank said Macau GGR fell at a similar rate during the 2018 FIFA World Cup and UEFA Euro 2016.
Choi said the pattern is consistent. Each major football tournament has