TLDR A trader on Polymarket bet nearly $1 million on Spain to beat World Cup debutants Cape Verde The match ended 0-0, wiping out the position and leaving a potential return of just $85,000 unrealised Spain dominated with 27 shots and an expected goals figure of 2.29, but goalkeeper Vozinha kept them out On Kalshi, a separate trader placed $2.3 million on Cape Verde not beating Spain — a draw was enough to profit The contrasting outcomes turned both bets into viral stories across social media The Bet That Went Wrong
Minutes before Spain kicked off against Cape Verde in Atlanta, a trader on prediction market Polymarket placed close to $1 million on Spain to win. It looked like a straightforward call. Spain were heavy favourites. The potential profit was just over $85,000 — modest for the size of the stake, but that is the nature of backing near-certainties.
The match ended 0-0. The position was wiped out.
Screenshots of the wager spread fast on social media. The account had form for this kind of trade — backing heavily favoured teams rather than chasing big odds. It can work well when favourites deliver. The problem is one upset can undo many previous wins in a single result.
Spain’s draw with Cape Verde was exactly that kind of upset.
Spain Dominated But Could Not Score
Spain controlled the game from start to finish. They had 27 shots to Cape Verde’s six, put seven on target, and were given an expected goals figure of 2.29. Cape Verde’s expected goals figure was 0.3.
Cape Verde goalkeeper Vozinha, who is 40 years old, was the difference. He denied Mikel Oyarzabal, Aymeric Laporte, and Ferran Torres in a busy spell before halftime. Torres also struck the crossbar. Spain created plenty but finished