TLDR 44% of Americans think betting on election outcomes should be illegal, vs. 30% who say it should be legal Sports prediction markets have majority support at 53%, while political markets face strong opposition War and terrorism contracts face the most resistance, with 57–64% saying they should be illegal Nearly $700 million has already traded on 2028 presidential election markets across Kalshi and Polymarket Over 25 prediction market bills have been introduced in the U.S. this year, with Minnesota passing the first state ban Most Americans Oppose Election Betting, Even as Industry Eyes Political Markets for Growth
Prediction market companies are pushing hard into political contracts. But a new poll shows a large chunk of the American public isn’t on board.
A POLITICO/Public First survey found that 44% of Americans think betting on election outcomes should be illegal. Only 30% said it should be legal.
That gap grows wider for other sensitive topics. Fifty-seven percent said betting on war outcomes should be illegal. Sixty-four percent opposed markets tied to acts of terrorism.
Sports markets are a different story. Around 53% of Americans said sports-related prediction contracts should be legal, with only 23% opposed.
Weather contracts and award show markets also drew more support than opposition, with roughly 46% saying they should be allowed.
Political Markets Are Still a Big Target for the Industry
Despite public skepticism, prediction market companies see politics as one of their biggest growth areas.
Bloomberg Intelligence analysts called political, election, and public policy contracts the industry’s “greatest opportunity.” They estimated these markets could make up 27% of trading volume by 2030, up from about 10% in early 2025.
That would translate to roughly $266 billion in annual trading volume.
The numbers already show strong demand. Nearly $700 million has traded on 2028 presidential