TLDR ASIC updated its Moneysmart website to warn Australians against using offshore prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi. Commissioner Alan Kirkland compared prediction markets to gambling, saying users lose important consumer protections. ASIC pointed to insider trading risks, citing the CFTC’s $35,000 fine against former U.S. Congressman George Santos. Polymarket was blocked in Australia in August 2025 after breaching the Interactive Gambling Act. ASIC also warned that at least 68% of retail investors lose money trading CFDs.
Australia’s financial watchdog has told citizens to avoid offshore prediction markets. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission, known as ASIC, says no operator holds a license to run these platforms in the country.
The regulator posted new guidance on its Moneysmart consumer website this week. It warns that users face real financial risks when betting on sites based outside Australia.
ASIC Commissioner Alan Kirkland spoke directly about the issue. He said the legal label doesn’t matter much when the outcome looks the same.
“Whatever the legal definition of a prediction market, let’s just focus on the substance and in all practical terms, it is akin to gambling,” Kirkland told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
Two platforms dominate this space globally. Kalshi is valued at roughly $22 billion, while Polymarket sits near $15 billion.
Kirkland explained that trading on these sites means dealing with companies overseas. That means users miss out on protections tied to Australian financial law.
Insider Trading Concerns Grow
ASIC flagged insider trading as a major worry. The agency pointed to a case involving former U.S. Congressman George Santos.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission fined Santos $35,000 for placing a bet tied to his own attendance at a presidential address. Kirkland said this case may not be rare.
“They’re potentially just the tip of the iceberg,” he said. “We