TLDR A new study estimates Brazil’s illegal betting market brings in between R$32.9 billion and R$43.3 billion in gross gaming revenue each year. Unauthorized operators may cost the government between R$9.1 billion and R$12 billion in lost tax revenue annually. Illegal operators control an estimated 38% to 44% of Brazil’s fixed odds betting market, down from 41% to 51% in 2025. The regulated market could reach R$54.3 billion in revenue in 2026, up 46.8% from the previous year. Moving 5 percentage points of market share to licensed operators could add R$1.2 billion to R$1.3 billion in yearly tax revenue.
Brazil’s illegal betting market could bring in between R$32.9 billion and R$43.3 billion in gross gaming revenue each year, according to a new study. The figures come from the second part of a report called Off the Radar 2.0, Measuring and Combating the Illegal Betting Market.
The report was prepared by economic consultancy LCA at the request of the Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming, known as IBJR. Details of the findings were reported on September 26, 2026.
The study also estimates that the government loses between R$9.1 billion and R$12 billion in tax revenue each year because of unauthorized operators.
Illegal Operators Hold a Large Share of the Market
The new figures build on a study released in August. That earlier research found that illegal operators controlled between 38% and 44% of Brazil’s fixed odds betting market.
This was down from an estimated 41% to 51% in 2025.
To measure the size of the illegal market, LCA used these market share ranges along with data from Brazil’s Federal Revenue Service.
From January to July 2026, the government collected R$8.7 billion in taxes tied to betting. Using an estimated effective tax rate of 27.6%, LCA calculated that the regulated