TLDR The UK Gambling Commission found 91% of people with repeated payments to illegal gambling sites also bet with licensed operators. Spending on licensed sites did not drop much after a person’s first illegal payment. People using unlicensed sites had far higher problem gambling scores than licensed site customers. The study used open banking data and excluded cryptocurrency payments, so it cannot measure the full size of the illegal market. Online gaming duty has been 40% since April 2026, and general betting duty is set to rise again in April 2027.
The UK Gambling Commission has released new data on people who bet with illegal gambling sites. The report, published on 28 October 2026, found that most of these bettors also use licensed operators.
Among people who made repeated payments to illegal sites, 91% also gambled with licensed companies. Their spending on licensed sites did not drop much after their first illegal payment.
The regulator tracked spending using open banking payment data. This is the Commission’s first study of the black market to use this method rather than relying on surveys alone.
What the Payment Data Shows
The Commission said the pattern is consistent with illegal gambling being added on top of licensed play. It does not fit neatly with the idea of players leaving the regulated market altogether.
The study also looked at gambling harm. People paying unlicensed operators had far higher problem gambling scores than customers of licensed sites.
A payment firm’s tool sorted the transactions. Any payment with more than a 50% chance of being gambling was counted as gambling.
H2 Gambling Capital forecasts the harmful illegal gambling black market will continue to grow as higher betting taxes make Britain’s regulated market less competitive.
By 2031, more than one in every