TLDR Onchain data links a Polymarket trader flagged by the New York Times to large matching bets on Kalshi. The trader’s wallet received about $1.98 million from Kalshi-linked wallets after the election. Some Kalshi bets on Nebraska may have been placed 10 minutes after a key poll was published. The trader held every Senate bet through Election Day and has a long record of large wagers. Two experts said the evidence fits a wealthy, risk-taking trader better than insider access.
A Polymarket trader flagged for well-timed Senate bets also appears to have placed matching wagers on Kalshi, according to an analysis of onchain data by The Block. The records suggest the trader may have earned more on Kalshi than on Polymarket.
The New York Times reported Friday that Vanderbilt University researchers flagged large bets placed before Times/Siena polls on the Nebraska and Michigan Senate races. The polls favored the candidates the trader backed.
The Block’s review found a wider trading history that two experts said fits other explanations better than insider access. Both said foul play cannot be fully ruled out.
Following the Money to Kalshi
The Block matched the bets to a Polymarket account named dubdubdub2. A linked wallet sent it $850,000 on Oct. 30 and 31, matching the account’s deposit records to the dollar.
At 5:29 p.m. ET on Oct. 30, the same wallet withdrew $2.2 million from Hyperliquid. About a minute later, it began sending funds to an address that forwards money to Zero Hash, a crypto deposit provider used by Kalshi. It sent about $1.39 million through Oct. 31.
Several deposits were followed within about a minute by large Kalshi purchases backing Nebraska Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts. One $175,000 deposit was followed 31 seconds later by about $159,000 in Ricketts bets at 66