TLDR DraftKings keeps about $7.30 in gross revenue for every $100 consumers trade on its exchange. The company plans to spend up to $1.05 billion on Predictions across 2026 and 2027. Marketing payback for 2027 customers is 18 months, or 41 months if sports contracts end in July 2028. A former lottery CFO says the first half of 2027 will test customer value. DraftKings posted a $317 million adjusted EBITDA loss in the third quarter.
DraftKings is collecting about $7.30 in gross revenue for every $100 that consumers trade on its prediction markets exchange, according to its November 5 earnings presentation. The figure gives an early look at how the company plans to earn back the money it is spending on the business.
The company has budgeted $650 million to $700 million in adjusted EBITDA for its Predictions product in 2026. It expects to spend another $250 million to $350 million in 2027.
How DraftKings Makes Money on Each Trade
During September and October, the company’s DKeX exchange earned an 11.1% gross take rate on consumer trading volume. DraftKings kept 65.6% of that through exchange fees, brokerage fees and market-making.
That works out to roughly $7.30 per $100 traded before costs. Promotions and operating expenses reduce the amount the company actually keeps.
DraftKings estimated $570 million in seasonally annualized gross revenue from its 2026 customer group. After promotions, net revenue fell to $470 million, with adjusted gross profit estimated at $350 million.
October annualized trading volume reached $56.8 billion. Market makers made up $46.7 billion of that total, while consumers traded $10.1 billion, based on October activity multiplied by 12.
More than 1.6 million customers have used Predictions so far this year. The company says revenue from the product will be immaterial in 2026 because new-customer promotions