TLDR Over 85% of bets on Kalshi are sports-related, and the platform made $25 million in fees during just four days of March Madness A federal appeals court sided with Kalshi over New Jersey, ruling its sports bets are “event contracts” classified as swaps under federal law A different panel of judges in a Nevada appeal signaled they may rule against Kalshi, which could send the case to the Supreme Court The prediction market industry is expected to hit $200 billion in volume this year, with Kalshi valued at $22 billion and Polymarket at $20 billion States and Native American tribes argue Kalshi is running an unlicensed gambling operation, and the legal outcome remains uncertain
Prediction markets platform Kalshi is heading toward a potential Supreme Court showdown that could reshape how sports betting and event contracts are regulated in the United States.
The company, along with rival Polymarket, positions itself as a platform for information-based event contracts. But recent data tells a different story about what users are actually doing on the platform.
Over 85% of all bets placed on Kalshi are tied to sports. During March Madness alone, the platform collected $25 million in fees over just four days.
Sports betting is the main revenue driver for the prediction market industry right now. Analyst Dustin Gouker, who covers the sector, has described sports as “the industry right now.”
Federal Courts Are Split on Kalshi’s Legal Status
The legal trouble for Kalshi comes from multiple directions. State governments and Native American tribes have filed legal challenges claiming the platform is operating as an unlicensed gambling business.
Judges in at least three states have agreed with that argument. Other judges have sided with Kalshi, ruling that its sports bets qualify as event contracts permitted under federal law.
Earlier