TLDR US prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are seeing growing trade volumes on Australian political events, including elections, Reserve Bank decisions, and even what the PM says in parliament Nearly US$500,000 was traded on Polymarket for the Farrer byelection alone, with Kalshi handling close to US$100,000 on the same race These platforms operate like financial exchanges rather than traditional bookmakers, letting users buy and sell shares tied to outcomes Australian regulators have already moved to block Polymarket and are monitoring Kalshi, but VPNs make enforcement difficult Federal wagering reforms are expected but questions remain about whether new rules can keep pace with platforms that blur the line between gambling and finance
Offshore prediction markets are gaining traction in Australian politics, and local regulators are struggling to keep up.
US-based platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have seen growing volumes of money flow through contracts tied to Australian political events. Neither platform is licensed to operate in Australia.
One recent market on Kalshi asked users to predict whether Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would say specific words during question time. Around US$13,000 was traded on that single contract.
The words in question included Iran, Trump, TAFE and tax cuts. It is one example of how granular these markets have become.
Hundreds of Thousands Wagered on Australian Elections
Polymarket users traded nearly US$500,000 on contracts linked to the Farrer byelection. Kalshi handled close to US$100,000 on the same race.
Other markets have covered Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decisions, unemployment figures and whether Albanese will remain prime minister by the end of the year.
The platforms work differently from traditional betting sites. Users buy and sell shares tied to outcomes rather than placing bets with a bookmaker. Prices shift based on sentiment and demand.
The companies present themselves more as financial