TLDR Germany’s total World Cup betting turnover could exceed €1 billion Between €300M–€400M may go to unlicensed offshore operators Licensed operators blame a 5% stake tax and product restrictions Germany’s monthly deposit cap of €1,000 is pushing bettors to illegal sites The World Cup will act as a real test of Germany’s 2021 gambling framework
Germany’s licensed sports betting industry is worried the 2026 FIFA World Cup will expose a major weakness in the country’s gambling rules.
The Deutscher Sportwettenverband (DSWV), which represents licensed online sportsbooks, estimates total betting turnover from German customers could top €1 billion during the tournament. That would make it the biggest football betting event since Germany’s current gambling rules took effect in July 2021.
But the industry doesn’t expect to see all of that money.
Up to €400 Million Could Go Offshore
The DSWV believes between €300 million and €400 million in wagers could end up with unlicensed operators running from offshore jurisdictions. Licensed companies would handle roughly €600 million to €700 million.
DSWV president Mathias Dahms says the tournament could generate betting activity equal to an extra month of revenue for many operators. Matches involving Germany’s national team are expected to drive the highest volumes.
The association points to data from Germany’s gambling regulator showing a large share of users still access unlicensed services. It also says the black market has grown faster than the legal sector recently.
Rules Are Blamed for Pushing Bettors Away
Licensed operators point to several rules they say make them less competitive.
A 5% tax on betting stakes is one of the main complaints. Operators say it cuts into margins and makes their products less attractive compared to offshore rivals.
Germany also has a nationwide monthly deposit cap of €1,000. Many operators argue this pushes higher-volume