TLDR Prediction markets could grow into a $1 trillion industry by 2030, according to a Bernstein estimate. Kalshi currently leads the prediction market space, with Polymarket as its main rival. ProphetX was approved last month as a Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. 365Prediction has a similar application pending with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Lawmakers and courts are still working out rules for the industry, including sports-related contracts.
Prediction markets are drawing new competitors even as the rules around them stay unsettled. Two newer companies, ProphetX and 365Prediction, are trying to carve out space in a market currently led by Kalshi and Polymarket.
Analysts at Bernstein project the prediction market industry could reach $1 trillion in trading volume by 2030. That number has attracted attention from companies both inside and outside the gambling world.
Dean Sisun, co-founder and CEO of ProphetX, compared the growth potential to the size of assets held at major brokerages. He pointed to a figure of $145 trillion in assets under management across those firms.
“If we turn prediction markets on across all those assets, how much is gonna get turned over year over year?” Sisun said. He believes even a small share of that activity could support a large company.
Two Companies, Two Different Paths to Approval
ProphetX received approval last month to operate as a Designated Contract Market and a Derivatives Clearing Organization. Those approvals allow the company to list and settle event contracts directly.
365Prediction, led by founder and CEO Laila Mintas, has a similar application still under review by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Mintas said building a better product matters more than being first to market.
She pointed to companies like Google and Netflix as examples of businesses that succeeded without being the first in their