TLDR Bloomberg reported Kalshi parlay bettors lost $294 million this year, but that number blends two very different groups of traders When split apart, ordinary parlay buyers lost 16.6 cents per dollar on normal days and 35 cents per dollar during the World Cup final The other side, people betting against parlays, made 21 cents per dollar, but much of that reflects buyers cashing out early rather than fresh bets Buyer losses over the two week study period were higher than what legal sportsbooks typically keep on parlay bets Kalshi’s app does not let regular users bet against someone else’s parlay directly, that activity mostly happens through professional trading tools
Kalshi is a prediction market where people can trade on the outcome of events, including sports. One popular product is called a combo, which works like a parlay bet. A combo only pays out if every prediction inside it comes true.
Bloomberg reported in July that bettors lost a net $294 million on these combo markets so far this year. Gambling Insider rebuilt that same calculation and confirmed the number was accurate.
But the outlet found that number hides a bigger story. The $294 million figure blends two separate groups of traders into one average.
Two Groups, Two Different Outcomes
The first group is parlay buyers. These are people betting that a combo will hit, similar to filling out a bet slip at a sportsbook.
The second group takes the opposite side. They bet that the combo will miss, often paying a high price for a small potential payout.
Gambling Insider studied every trade across roughly 4.6 million combo markets that settled between July 14 and July 27. The results showed the two groups had very different results.
Parlay buyers staked $226 million and lost $79 million.