TLDR A Polymarket wallet named VelvetNova27 bet about $818,000 against the CLARITY Act passing in 2026. The trader bought over 1.05 million No shares at an average price near 77.7 cents. Polymarket now shows only a 14% chance the bill becomes law this year. A second wallet, KatsuManager87, placed about $676,800 on the same side. The Senate holds a key procedural vote on the bill on September 15.
A trader on the prediction market Polymarket has placed a large bet against a major US crypto bill.
The wallet, known as VelvetNova27, is new to the platform. It bought more than 1.05 million No shares tied to H.R. 3633, known as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025.
The average price paid was about 77.7 cents per share. That works out to a wager of roughly $818,130.
The bet is already showing a paper profit. Polymarket currently prices the odds of the bill becoming law this year at around 14%.
That is a sharp shift from earlier in the year. At one point, the market gave the bill more than an 80% chance of passing.
Nearly $1.5 Million Against the Bill
VelvetNova27 is not the only trader taking this position.
Another new wallet, KatsuManager87, has placed about $676,800 in bets against the bill across three trades. Together, the two wallets have put close to $1.5 million on the same outcome.
There is no public evidence linking the two accounts. There is also no evidence either trader has access to private information about the bill’s progress.
Large bets like these can move prices on their own. A big order can shift the displayed odds even if it does not reflect what most traders think.
Still, the size of these bets stands out. The market has recorded about $11
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