TLDR Polymarket raised the odds of Supreme Court review of the Kalshi case from 29% to 52% after a Ninth Circuit ruling. The Ninth Circuit ruled against Kalshi, siding with Nevada’s authority to block its sports contracts. This ruling conflicts with an earlier Third Circuit decision that favored Kalshi, creating a legal split. Kalshi plans to seek further review, and New Jersey has until September 3 to ask the Supreme Court to weigh in on the Third Circuit case. Legal experts are divided, with odds of an eventual ruling against prediction markets estimated between 50% and 80%.
A legal battle over sports prediction markets has taken a new turn. The next question isn’t who wins, but whether the Supreme Court will even hear the case.
Polymarket’s international platform raised its odds on Supreme Court review after the Ninth Circuit ruled against Kalshi on Friday. The probability jumped from 29% to 52%, with almost $1 million traded on the market.
The same market puts the odds of the court accepting the case before October 31 at only 6%. That gap shows how uncertain the timeline still is.
Ninth Circuit Sides Against Kalshi
The case started in Nevada, where state regulators tried to block Kalshi’s sports contracts. A federal judge issued an injunction stopping the company from running those markets in the state.
Kalshi appealed, but the Ninth Circuit panel ruled unanimously against the company. Kalshi had argued that the Commodity Exchange Act gives the Commodity Futures Trading Commission sole authority over its contracts, blocking states from applying gambling laws.
The court disagreed. It found that federal law likely does not stop Nevada from enforcing its own gaming rules on Kalshi’s sports contracts.
This decision puts the Ninth Circuit at odds with the Third Circuit. Judges there ruled 2-1