TLDR A new analysis of Kalshi’s trade data shows sports contracts made up about 61% of its August volume, not the small slice the company’s legal defense relies on. Contracts with the clearest claim to being financial “swaps,” like interest rates and inflation, made up just 0.6% of money staked in August. Kalshi’s often cited $40 billion volume figure shrinks to $11.4 billion when contracts are measured by actual money staked instead of face value. Parlay bets look like 44.6% of Kalshi’s volume under the company’s counting method, but only 9.6% when measured by money actually staked. Federal appeals courts are split, with the Third Circuit siding with Kalshi in April and the Ninth Circuit ruling against it in August, setting up a possible Supreme Court case.
Kalshi has built its legal defense around one idea. The company argues that every contract it lists, from a Federal Reserve decision to a football game, counts as a swap under federal law.
If that argument holds, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has sole authority over Kalshi, and states cannot regulate it as gambling. That question is now splitting federal courts.
A new analysis rebuilt Kalshi’s full trading record from public blockchain data on Dune. The goal was to see what people are actually trading on the platform, not just what the company reports.
How the Money Breaks Down
The results show a gap between Kalshi’s legal argument and its actual business. In August, about 61% of money staked went toward sports outcomes.
Another 34% went into short term crypto and commodity contracts, many resolving every 15 minutes. Bitcoin price contracts alone brought in $2.7 billion for the month.
That leaves very little for the contracts with the strongest legal case. Interest rate decisions, inflation reports, and similar economic contracts