TLDR CLSA lowered its 2027 Macau gross gaming revenue forecast by 4% to MOP259.2 billion ($32.2 billion) The firm also cut its 2028 GGR estimate by 3% to MOP270.4 billion ($33.6 billion) Second quarter 2026 EBITDA fell 10.7% to $1.81 billion as costs rose faster than revenue China economic indicators, including consumer confidence, stayed weak through the summer CLSA kept its 2026 full year Macau GGR forecast largely unchanged at MOP253.2 billion ($31.4 billion)
CLSA has reduced its outlook for Macau’s casino industry in 2027. The brokerage firm now expects gross gaming revenue, known as GGR, to reach MOP259.2 billion, or $32.2 billion, next year.
That figure is 4% lower than CLSA’s previous estimate. It still represents a 2.4% increase from 2026 levels.
The firm also trimmed its 2028 forecast. CLSA now projects GGR of MOP270.4 billion, or $33.6 billion, down 3% from its earlier number.
Even with the cut, CLSA still expects 4.3% growth for 2028. The report was released on September 15.
CLSA said the lower estimates reflect a lack of positive economic signals in the region. The firm expects growth in 2027 to come mostly from more visitors rather than higher spending per person.
An easier comparison period in June and July, along with a stronger renminbi against the Macanese pataca, could help support results. But CLSA does not expect GGR per visitor to rise much.
Costs Continue to Outpace Revenue
Macau’s casino operators faced weaker profits in the second quarter of 2026. Operating expenses across the sector rose 2% year-on-year, while GGR fell slightly by 0.1%.
Combined EBITDA for the sector dropped 10.7% to $1.81 billion. That number came in 2% below what CLSA had projected earlier.
The EBITDA to GGR ratio, a measure of profitability, fell to 24.2%. That is down from