TLDR Galaxy Research studied 2.9 million retail Polymarket accounts and found 69.2% finished below break-even. Retail accounts lost a combined $338.9 million, while automated accounts left out of the study made $246.8 million. Sports specialists had the worst win rate at 25.1%, compared with 41.2% for technology and science traders. Traders quit at a rate of 15.2% after a loss, compared with 6.1% after a win. The median retail account lost about $3.
Most retail traders on Polymarket are losing money, according to a new report from Galaxy Research. The study looked at 2.9 million accounts and found that 69.2% finished below break-even.
Together, those accounts lost $338.9 million. The report was published on October 1, 2026.
How Galaxy Research Studied Polymarket Traders
The study used on-chain data covering Polymarket’s full trading history. That history goes back to the platform’s launch in 2020.
Polymarket is an international prediction market. Users buy and sell shares tied to the outcome of real-world events, such as elections, sports, and technology milestones.
Because the platform runs on a blockchain, every trade leaves a public record. This made it possible to study millions of accounts at once.
Galaxy defined retail accounts as those trading at a human pace. This filter separated people placing trades by hand from automated systems that place orders much faster.
Automated accounts were left out of the retail sample. Those accounts made a combined $246.8 million in profits.
Galaxy Research finds 69.2% of Polymarket’s roughly 2.9 million retail accounts finished below break-even, with aggregate losses of $338.9 million.@Polymarket pic.twitter.com/eS5g7G9u2Y
— MSB Intel (@MSBIntel) October 1, 2026
Small Typical Losses and Wide Gaps
For most traders, the losses were small. The median retail account lost about $3.
The middle 50% of accounts ranged from a loss