TLDR Polymarket users have traded more than $77,000 on whether major banks will fail before the end of 2026. Banks listed include HSBC, Lloyds, JPMorgan Chase, BNP Paribas, Bank of America and Goldman Sachs. UK MP Bobby Dean warns the markets could amplify rumors and help trigger bank runs. Failure odds for HSBC and Lloyds remain in the low single digits on Polymarket. The FCA is discussing prediction markets with overseas regulators, and the Bank of England is monitoring.
Prediction market Polymarket is letting users bet on whether some of the world’s largest banks will collapse before the end of 2026. A UK lawmaker has warned that this betting could help cause the panic it predicts.
More than $77,000 has been traded on the market, according to The Guardian. The market asks which major banks will fail before the year ends.
The list includes British banks HSBC and Lloyds. It also features JPMorgan Chase, BNP Paribas, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and others.
The amounts traded are small compared with traditional financial markets. Even so, the market has drawn attention from lawmakers and regulators.
Polymarket is taking positions on whether HSBC and Lloyds fail by end-2026: $9,168 on Lloyds, $2,023 on HSBC. MP Bobby Dean told The Guardian such markets “could even trigger bank runs” and urged UK regulators to act. pic.twitter.com/zuykwX2bAt
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MP Raises Concerns Over Bank Run Risk
Bobby Dean is a Liberal Democrat member of Parliament who sits on the Treasury Committee. He has urged regulators not to dismiss the possible effects of these markets.
Dean is concerned that a fast-moving prediction market could amplify existing rumors or fears about a bank. That could lead worried depositors to pull their money out.
Banks depend on