TLDR Brazil’s government estimates a betting ban would cost R$6.8 billion in lost revenue from late 2026 through 2027. BNLData puts the loss at R$18.2 billion over the same period, nearly three times the official figure. Federal taxes from the betting sector totaled R$9.95 billion in 2025 and are not included in the government’s estimate. Kambi director Mateo Lenoble says the ban has hurt investor confidence and created lasting legal uncertainty. Lenoble warns bettors may move to offshore sites, raising match-fixing and gambling harm risks.
Brazil’s ban on online betting could cost public finances far more than the government expects. At the same time, companies that serve the market say the move is already affecting their business.
The ban comes less than two years after Brazil launched its regulated online gambling market.
Government and Analysts Disagree on the Cost
Planning Minister Bruno Moretti confirmed the government’s estimate in an interview published October 19 by Valor. He said lost revenue would reach R$1.5 billion in late 2026 and R$5.3 billion in 2027, for a total of R$6.8 billion.
Moretti also said the government is looking at cutting spending tied to betting revenue. This would help limit the effect on the federal budget.
However, data compiled by BNLData puts the loss at R$18.2 billion between October 2026 and December 2027. BNLData calls its estimate conservative because it does not include market growth or a higher allocation rate planned for 2027.
According to BNLData, the government’s R$5.3 billion figure only covers money sent to legal beneficiaries. These include programs in sports, tourism, public security, health, education and social security.
The government’s figure leaves out federal taxes paid by the sector. These include corporate income tax, social contributions and social security payments, which totaled R$9.95 billion in 2025.
Ending the regulated