TLDR Bernstein expects Robinhood’s prediction market revenue to reach $1.7 billion in 2028, above the $1.6 billion it expects from crypto trading. The firm raised Robinhood revenue estimates by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027 and 3% for 2028. Bernstein estimates Robinhood’s event contract volume will rise 21% from the prior quarter. Coinbase’s derivatives and prediction market revenue is forecast to reach $2 billion in 2028, up from about $600 million this year. Robinhood reports third-quarter results after U.S. markets close on Tuesday, Oct. 27.
Research firm Bernstein expects prediction markets to bring in more revenue for Robinhood and Coinbase over the next few years. The forecast came in a new report from analyst Gautam Chhugani.
Prediction markets let users trade yes or no contracts on the outcome of real-world events. These products are also called event contracts.
Robinhood has said prediction markets are its fastest-growing business on record. Bernstein’s report gives new estimates on how large that business could become.
Bernstein Raises Robinhood Revenue Estimates
Chhugani repeated his view that Robinhood’s prediction market revenue will reach $1.7 billion in 2028. That would be slightly more than the $1.6 billion he expects the company to earn from cryptocurrency trading that year.
The analyst raised his total revenue estimates for Robinhood by 3% for 2026, 4% for 2027 and 3% for 2028.
He expects event contracts to bring in $650 million in revenue for Robinhood this year. That figure would more than double by 2028 if his forecast holds.
Bernstein also estimates Robinhood will post a 21% quarter-over-quarter increase in event contract volume.
In the second quarter, Robinhood’s prediction market revenue topped its cryptocurrency revenue for the first time on a quarterly basis.
Coinbase Expected to Grow Event Contract Business
The U.S. prediction market industry is mostly controlled