TLDR Macau mass-market gaming revenue grew 14.4% year-on-year in Q1 2026, the best mass growth since Q3 2024 EBITDA margins are expected to drop by 30 basis points despite 9% year-on-year EBITDA growth Player reinvestment and agent commissions remain high with no near-term improvement expected Sands China led operators in top-line revenue growth, followed by Wynn Macau Seaport expects a sharp slowdown in Macau gaming growth for the rest of 2026
Macau’s casino industry posted strong first-quarter results in 2026, but analysts at Seaport Research Partners warn that the pace of growth is unlikely to hold through the rest of the year.
Gross gaming revenue in the first quarter rose 14.4% compared to the same period last year, according to official data. On a quarter-to-quarter basis, however, GGR slipped by 0.3%.
Seaport senior analyst Vitaly Umansky said the result was better than expected. He called it the best mass-market growth since the third quarter of 2024.
Mass baccarat gaming revenues for the quarter reached MOP34.32 billion, or about $4.26 billion. That marked a 6.5% increase year-on-year, while quarter-on-quarter growth came in at just 0.9%.
Despite the top-line gains, profitability remains a concern. Seaport estimates overall EBITDA will grow about 9% year-on-year, but EBITDA margins are expected to fall by 30 basis points.
Cost Pressures Weigh on Profitability
Umansky said in a Tuesday memo that cost increases in 2026 are expected to be more modest than last year. Operating expenditure growth is projected to land in the 6% to 7% range.
Still, he pointed to player reinvestment and agent commissions as ongoing drags on margins. He said he does not see improvement in those areas in the near to medium term.
He added that stabilization is more likely than actual improvement. The market remains active, but gaining traction